Canada vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Canada 23.4%75.6% SamoaSamoa 88.4%10.6% CanadaCanada 17.5%81.5% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 33 Samoa and 13 Canada, with the middle run at 8 Samoa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-17 on a tight afternoon and 37-29 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Canada, negative favours Samoa.
Canada 661, Samoa 1150 — 489 points, favouring Samoa
Canada are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada0–0–1Samoa1 meeting, 2016 to 2016 · Samoa by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-25 | Samoa 25–23 Canada | — | Stade des Alpes |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.