Canada vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 33.8%draw 2.0%64.2% SamoaSamoa 85.3%draw 2.0%12.7% CanadaCanada 23.0%draw 2.0%75.0% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Samoa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Samoa and 15 Canada, half of them between 12 Samoa and 4 Canada, with the middle run at 3 Samoa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Samoa.
Canada 1255, Samoa 1512 — 257 points, favouring Samoa
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada0–0–6Samoa6 meetings, 1999 to 2016 · Samoa by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-25 | Samoa 25–23 Canada | — | Stade des Alpes |
| 2015-07-29 | Canada 20–21 Samoa | — | BMO Field |
| 2014-11-14 | Canada 13–23 Samoa | — | Stade de la Rabine(neutral) |
| 2012-11-09 | Samoa 42–12 Canada | — | Parc Eirias(neutral) |
| 2000-07-01 | Samoa 41–22 Canada | — | Apia Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.