Canada vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 36.6%draw 1.9%61.5% USAUSA 83.0%draw 1.8%15.2% CanadaCanada 25.6%draw 1.9%72.5% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 USA and 16 Canada, half of them between 13 USA and 5 Canada, with the middle run at 3 USA.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps USA.
Canada 1255, USA 1537 — 283 points, favouring USA
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada41–2–25USA68 meetings, 1977 to 2026 · Canada by 4.5 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · USA by 8.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Canada 19–16 USA | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium(neutral) |
| 2025-08-22 | Canada 34–20 USA | — | McMahon Stadium |
| 2024-08-31 | USA 28–15 Canada | — | Dignity Health Sports Park |
| 2021-09-12 | USA 38–16 Canada | — | Infinity Park |
| 2021-09-04 | Canada 34–21 USA | — | Swilers Rugby Club |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 68. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.