Canada vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Canada 23.2%75.8% USAUSA 79.0%20.0% CanadaCanada 23.3%75.7% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 29 USA and 14 Canada, with the middle run at 7 USA.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Canada, negative favours USA.
Canada 661, USA 1088 — 426 points, favouring USA
Canada are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada1–1–5USA7 meetings, 2015 to 2021 · USA by 13.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-09-12 | USA 38–16 Canada | — | Infinity Park |
| 2021-09-04 | Canada 34–21 USA | — | Swilers Rugby Club |
| 2019-09-08 | Canada 15–20 USA | — | BC Place |
| 2018-06-23 | Canada 17–42 USA | — | Wanderers Grounds, Halifax, Nova Scotia |
| 2017-07-01 | USA 52–16 Canada | — | Torero Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.