Canada vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 7.6%91.4% WalesWales 96.7%2.3% CanadaCanada 4.7%94.3% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 47 Wales and 1 Wales, half of them between 31 Wales and 5 Wales, with the middle run at 16 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 83 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-15 on a tight afternoon and 43-27 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Wales.
Canada 1255, Wales 1868 — 614 points, favouring Wales
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada1–0–15Wales16 meetings, 1971 to 2021 · Wales by 25.6 on average
Last 10: 0–0–10 · Wales by 26.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-03 | Wales 68–12 Canada | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2009-05-30 | Canada 23–32 Wales | — | York Stadium |
| 2008-11-14 | Wales 34–13 Canada | — | Millennium Stadium |
| 2007-09-09 | Wales 42–17 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Stade de la Beaujoire(neutral) |
| 2006-11-17 | Wales 61–26 Canada | — | Millennium Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.