Canada vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Canada 7.4%91.6% WalesWales 94.8%4.2% CanadaCanada 5.8%93.2% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 52 Wales and 1 Wales, with the middle run at 21 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 44-23 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Canada, negative favours Wales.
Canada 661, Wales 1425 — 764 points, favouring Wales
Canada are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada0–0–4Wales4 meetings, 1987 to 2021 · Wales by 35.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-03 | Wales 68–12 Canada | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2007-09-09 | Wales 42–17 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Stade de la Beaujoire(neutral) |
| 2003-10-12 | Wales 41–10 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Marvel Stadium(neutral) |
| 1987-06-03 | Wales 40–9 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Invercargill Rugby Park(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.