Canada vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 63.9%draw 3.0%33.1% ZimbabweZimbabwe 55.2%draw 3.0%41.8% CanadaCanada 52.7%draw 3.0%44.3% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Zimbabwe, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Zimbabwe and 36 Canada, half of them between 3 Zimbabwe and 21 Canada, with the middle run at 6 Canada.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Canada are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Zimbabwe.
Canada 1255, Zimbabwe 1293 — 38 points, favouring Zimbabwe
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada1–0–0Zimbabwe1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Canada by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Canada 23–19 Zimbabwe | — | Princess Auto Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.