Connacht vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 89.8%draw 2.5%7.7% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 20.6%draw 2.5%76.9% ConnachtConnacht 83.1%draw 2.5%14.4% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Connacht and 38 Connacht, half of them between 5 Connacht and 25 Connacht, with the middle run at 13 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-15 on a tight afternoon and 40-27 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Connacht 1783, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 743 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht2–0–2Newcastle Falcons4 meetings, 2015 to 2023 · Newcastle Falcons by 2.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-21 | Newcastle Falcons 35–21 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2022-12-10 | Connacht 22–8 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2015-12-20 | Newcastle Falcons 29–5 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2015-12-11 | Connacht 25–10 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.