Connacht vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 89.5%draw 2.5%8.0% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 21.2%draw 2.5%76.3% ConnachtConnacht 83.1%draw 2.5%14.4% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 39 Connacht, with the middle run at 14 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-25 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Newcastle Falcons.
Connacht 1752, Newcastle Falcons 1174 — 577 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht2–0–2Newcastle Falcons4 meetings, 2015 to 2023 · Newcastle Falcons by 2.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-21 | Newcastle Falcons 35–21 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2022-12-10 | Connacht 22–8 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2015-12-20 | Newcastle Falcons 29–5 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2015-12-11 | Connacht 25–10 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.