Connacht vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 78.2%draw 2.5%19.3% OspreysOspreys 42.6%draw 2.5%54.9% ConnachtConnacht 65.2%draw 2.5%32.3% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Ospreys and 32 Connacht, with the middle run at 9 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Ospreys.
Connacht 1752, Ospreys 1470 — 282 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht9–0–8Ospreys17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Connacht by 1.6 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Connacht by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Connacht 21–14 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2025-12-07 | Ospreys 24–21 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2025-03-22 | Ospreys 43–40 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2023-10-21 | Connacht 34–26 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2022-10-29 | Ospreys 19–22 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.