Connacht vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 79.8%draw 2.5%17.7% OspreysOspreys 51.5%draw 2.5%46.0% ConnachtConnacht 63.6%draw 2.5%33.9% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Ospreys and 28 Connacht, half of them between 1 Connacht and 18 Connacht, with the middle run at 9 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-14 on a tight afternoon and 33-24 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Connacht 1783, Ospreys 1567 — 216 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht9–0–8Ospreys17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Connacht by 1.6 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Connacht by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Connacht 21–14 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2025-12-07 | Ospreys 24–21 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2025-03-22 | Ospreys 43–40 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2023-10-21 | Connacht 34–26 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2022-10-29 | Ospreys 19–22 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.