Connacht vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 78.5%draw 2.5%19.0% UlsterUlster 58.4%draw 2.5%39.1% ConnachtConnacht 59.5%draw 2.5%38.0% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Ulster and 28 Connacht, half of them between 1 Connacht and 17 Connacht, with the middle run at 8 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-14 on a tight afternoon and 33-25 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Connacht 1783, Ulster 1582 — 201 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht9–0–15Ulster24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ulster by 3.1 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Ulster by 5.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Ulster 19–26 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2025-12-27 | Connacht 24–29 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2024-12-28 | Connacht 7–17 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2024-10-12 | Ulster 32–27 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-12-22 | Ulster 20–19 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.