Connacht vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 66.3%draw 2.5%31.2% UlsterUlster 51.3%draw 2.5%46.2% ConnachtConnacht 56.4%draw 2.5%41.1% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Ulster and 26 Connacht, with the middle run at 5 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Ulster.
Connacht 1752, Ulster 1633 — 118 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht9–0–15Ulster24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ulster by 3.1 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Ulster by 5.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Ulster 19–26 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2025-12-27 | Connacht 24–29 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2024-12-28 | Connacht 7–17 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2024-10-12 | Ulster 32–27 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-12-22 | Ulster 20–19 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.