Ireland vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Ireland 94.1%4.9% ItalyItaly 8.6%90.4% IrelandIreland 92.3%6.7% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Ireland and 50 Ireland, with the middle run at 20 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-10 on a tight afternoon and 42-22 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ireland, negative favours Italy.
Ireland 1884, Italy 1367 — 518 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland35–0–4Italy39 meetings, 1988 to 2026 · Ireland by 20.7 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Ireland by 22.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Ireland 20–13 Italy | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-03-15 | Italy 17–22 Ireland | — | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2024-02-11 | Ireland 36–0 Italy | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2023-08-05 | Ireland 33–17 Italy | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2023-02-25 | Italy 20–34 Ireland | — | Stadio Olimpico |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 39. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.