Ireland vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Ireland 95.3%3.7% ItalyItaly 10.1%88.9% IrelandIreland 92.3%6.7% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Ireland v Italy, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Ireland and 53 Ireland, half of them between 8 Ireland and 38 Ireland, with the middle run at 21 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 45-24 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ireland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ireland, a bar to the left helps Italy.
Ireland 2351, Italy 1827 — 524 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland35–0–4Italy39 meetings, 1988 to 2026 · Ireland by 20.7 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Ireland by 22.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Ireland 20–13 Italy | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-03-15 | Italy 17–22 Ireland | — | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2024-02-11 | Ireland 36–0 Italy | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2023-08-05 | Ireland 33–17 Italy | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2023-02-25 | Italy 20–34 Ireland | — | Stadio Olimpico |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 39. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.