Ireland vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Ireland 40.3%draw 2.7%57.0% New ZealandNew Zealand 79.5%draw 2.7%17.8% IrelandIreland 28.3%draw 2.7%69.0% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ireland v New Zealand, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 32 New Zealand and 14 Ireland, half of them between 17 New Zealand and 5 Ireland, with the middle run at 3 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Ireland are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ireland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ireland, a bar to the left helps New Zealand.
Ireland 2351, New Zealand 2476 — 125 points, favouring New Zealand
Ireland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland5–1–34New Zealand40 meetings, 1905 to 2026 · New Zealand by 14.2 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · New Zealand by 6.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | New Zealand 40–21 Ireland | Nations Championship | Eden Park |
| 2025-11-01 | Ireland 13–26 New Zealand | — | Soldier Field(neutral) |
| 2024-11-08 | Ireland 13–23 New Zealand | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2023-10-14 | Ireland 24–28 New Zealand | — | Stade de France(neutral) |
| 2022-07-16 | New Zealand 22–32 Ireland | — | Hnry Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 40. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.