Ireland vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Ireland 31.7%draw 2.6%65.7% New ZealandNew Zealand 78.4%draw 2.6%19.0% IrelandIreland 25.1%draw 2.6%72.3% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 New Zealand and 15 Ireland, with the middle run at 4 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why Ireland are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ireland, negative favours New Zealand.
Ireland 1884, New Zealand 2045 — 161 points, favouring New Zealand
Ireland are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland5–1–34New Zealand40 meetings, 1905 to 2026 · New Zealand by 14.2 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · New Zealand by 6.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | New Zealand 40–21 Ireland | Nations Championship | Eden Park |
| 2025-11-01 | Ireland 13–26 New Zealand | — | Soldier Field(neutral) |
| 2024-11-08 | Ireland 13–23 New Zealand | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2023-10-14 | Ireland 24–28 New Zealand | — | Stade de France(neutral) |
| 2022-07-16 | New Zealand 22–32 Ireland | — | Hnry Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 40. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.