Ireland vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Ireland 96.0%3.0% SamoaSamoa 5.8%93.2% IrelandIreland 94.6%4.4% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Ireland and 51 Ireland, with the middle run at 22 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-11 on a tight afternoon and 44-22 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ireland, negative favours Samoa.
Ireland 1884, Samoa 1150 — 734 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland2–0–0Samoa2 meetings, 2019 to 2023 · Ireland by 23.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-26 | Ireland 17–13 Samoa | — | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2019-10-12 | Ireland 47–5 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Best Denki Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.