Ireland vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Ireland 96.7%2.3% SamoaSamoa 7.7%91.3% IrelandIreland 94.0%5.0% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Ireland v Samoa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Ireland and 55 Ireland, half of them between 9 Ireland and 39 Ireland, with the middle run at 21 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 39 and 89 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 35-14 on a tight afternoon and 48-27 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ireland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ireland, a bar to the left helps Samoa.
Ireland 2351, Samoa 1512 — 839 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland7–0–2Samoa9 meetings, 1988 to 2023 · Ireland by 13.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-26 | Ireland 17–13 Samoa | — | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2019-10-12 | Ireland 47–5 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Best Denki Stadium |
| 2013-11-09 | Ireland 40–9 Samoa | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2010-11-13 | Ireland 20–10 Samoa | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2003-06-20 | Samoa 14–40 Ireland | — | Apia Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.