Ireland vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Ireland 96.8%2.2% USAUSA 4.1%94.9% IrelandIreland 95.9%3.1% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Ireland and 52 Ireland, with the middle run at 21 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 44-23 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ireland, negative favours USA.
Ireland 1884, USA 1088 — 797 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland5–0–0USA5 meetings, 1999 to 2021 · Ireland by 39.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-10 | Ireland 71–10 USA | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2018-11-24 | Ireland 57–14 USA | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2017-06-10 | USA 19–55 Ireland | — | Red Bull Arena |
| 2011-09-11 | Ireland 22–10 USA | Rugby World Cup | Stadium Taranaki(neutral) |
| 1999-10-02 | Ireland 53–8 USA | Rugby World Cup | Aviva Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.