Ireland vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Ireland 97.5%1.5% USAUSA 4.3%94.7% IrelandIreland 96.2%2.8% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ireland v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Ireland and 55 Ireland, half of them between 8 Ireland and 39 Ireland, with the middle run at 21 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 38 and 88 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 35-14 on a tight afternoon and 48-27 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ireland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ireland, a bar to the left helps USA.
Ireland 2351, USA 1537 — 814 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland12–0–0USA12 meetings, 1989 to 2021 · Ireland by 32.4 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Ireland by 35.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-10 | Ireland 71–10 USA | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2018-11-24 | Ireland 57–14 USA | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2017-06-10 | USA 19–55 Ireland | — | Red Bull Arena |
| 2013-06-08 | USA 12–15 Ireland | — | BBVA Compass Stadium |
| 2011-09-11 | Ireland 22–10 USA | Rugby World Cup | Stadium Taranaki(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.