Ireland vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Ireland 92.8%6.2% WalesWales 19.8%79.2% IrelandIreland 86.1%12.9% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Ireland and 41 Ireland, with the middle run at 15 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-12 on a tight afternoon and 38-23 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ireland, negative favours Wales.
Ireland 1884, Wales 1425 — 460 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland61–7–69Wales137 meetings, 1882 to 2026 · Ireland by 0.1 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Ireland by 13.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Ireland 27–17 Wales | Six Nations Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-02-22 | Wales 18–27 Ireland | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2024-02-24 | Ireland 31–7 Wales | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2023-02-04 | Wales 10–34 Ireland | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2022-02-05 | Ireland 29–7 Wales | — | Aviva Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 137. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.