Ireland vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Ireland 85.3%draw 1.4%13.3% ZimbabweZimbabwe 21.2%draw 1.4%77.4% IrelandIreland 81.5%draw 1.4%17.1% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Zimbabwe and 47 Ireland, with the middle run at 17 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-11 on a tight afternoon and 39-22 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ireland, negative favours Zimbabwe.
Ireland 1884, Zimbabwe 1529 — 356 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland1–0–0Zimbabwe1 meeting, 1991 to 1991 · Ireland by 44.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991-10-06 | Ireland 55–11 Zimbabwe | Rugby World Cup | Aviva Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.