Italy vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Italy 5.6%93.4% New ZealandNew Zealand 96.6%2.4% ItalyItaly 3.8%95.2% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Italy v New Zealand, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 50 New Zealand and 1 New Zealand, half of them between 35 New Zealand and 7 New Zealand, with the middle run at 19 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 83 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-13 on a tight afternoon and 44-25 on an open one.
Why Italy are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps New Zealand.
Italy 1827, New Zealand 2476 — 650 points, favouring New Zealand
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy0–0–19New Zealand19 meetings, 1979 to 2026 · New Zealand by 45.3 on average
Last 10: 0–0–10 · New Zealand by 41.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | New Zealand 47–17 Italy | Nations Championship | Hnry Stadium |
| 2024-11-23 | Italy 11–29 New Zealand | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-09-29 | New Zealand 96–17 Italy | — | Groupama Stadium(neutral) |
| 2021-11-06 | Italy 9–47 New Zealand | — | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2018-11-24 | Italy 3–66 New Zealand | — | Stadio Olimpico |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.