Italy vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Italy 5.2%93.8% New ZealandNew Zealand 95.5%3.5% ItalyItaly 4.3%94.7% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 49 New Zealand and 1 New Zealand, with the middle run at 20 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-11 on a tight afternoon and 42-22 on an open one.
Why Italy are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Italy, negative favours New Zealand.
Italy 1367, New Zealand 2045 — 678 points, favouring New Zealand
Italy are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy0–1–18New Zealand19 meetings, 1987 to 2026 · New Zealand by 44.9 on average
Last 10: 0–1–9 · New Zealand by 35.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | New Zealand 47–17 Italy | Nations Championship | Hnry Stadium |
| 2024-11-23 | Italy 11–29 New Zealand | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-09-29 | New Zealand 96–17 Italy | — | Groupama Stadium(neutral) |
| 2021-11-06 | Italy 9–47 New Zealand | — | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2019-10-12 | New Zealand 0–0 Italy | Rugby World Cup | City of Toyota Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.