Italy vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Italy 81.3%draw 2.3%16.4% SamoaSamoa 39.7%draw 2.3%58.0% ItalyItaly 69.7%draw 2.3%28.0% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Samoa and 38 Italy, with the middle run at 11 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-25 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Italy, negative favours Samoa.
Italy 1367, Samoa 1150 — 217 points, favouring Italy
Italy are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy1–0–2Samoa3 meetings, 1995 to 2024 · level on average margin
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-05 | Samoa 33–25 Italy | — | Apia Park |
| 2022-11-05 | Italy 49–17 Samoa | — | Stadio Plebiscito |
| 1995-05-27 | Samoa 42–18 Italy | Rugby World Cup | Buffalo City Stadium(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.