Italy vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Italy 86.4%draw 1.7%11.9% SamoaSamoa 27.4%draw 1.7%70.9% ItalyItaly 78.9%draw 1.7%19.4% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Italy v Samoa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Samoa and 39 Italy, half of them between 3 Italy and 25 Italy, with the middle run at 12 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 37-25 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps Samoa.
Italy 1827, Samoa 1512 — 315 points, favouring Italy
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy3–0–6Samoa9 meetings, 1995 to 2024 · Samoa by 4.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-05 | Samoa 33–25 Italy | — | Apia Park |
| 2022-11-05 | Italy 49–17 Samoa | — | Stadio Plebiscito |
| 2014-11-08 | Italy 24–13 Samoa | — | Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca |
| 2014-06-14 | Samoa 15–0 Italy | — | Apia Park |
| 2013-06-15 | Samoa 39–10 Italy | — | Mbombela Stadium(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.