Italy vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Italy 84.0%draw 1.9%14.1% USAUSA 22.7%draw 1.9%75.4% ItalyItaly 79.8%draw 1.9%18.3% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 USA and 43 Italy, with the middle run at 14 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-25 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Italy, negative favours USA.
Italy 1367, USA 1088 — 279 points, favouring Italy
Italy are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy3–0–0USA3 meetings, 1991 to 2016 · Italy by 14.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-06-19 | USA 20–24 Italy | — | Avaya Stadium, San Jose, California |
| 2011-09-27 | USA 10–27 Italy | Rugby World Cup | Trafalgar Park(neutral) |
| 1991-10-05 | USA 9–30 Italy | Rugby World Cup | Cross Green(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.