Italy vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Italy 90.9%draw 1.8%7.3% USAUSA 24.6%draw 1.8%73.6% ItalyItaly 83.4%draw 1.8%14.8% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Italy v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Italy and 44 Italy, half of them between 5 Italy and 30 Italy, with the middle run at 16 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-13 on a tight afternoon and 40-24 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps USA.
Italy 1827, USA 1537 — 289 points, favouring Italy
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy5–0–0USA5 meetings, 1991 to 2016 · Italy by 16.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-06-19 | USA 20–24 Italy | — | Avaya Stadium, San Jose, California |
| 2012-06-23 | USA 10–30 Italy | — | BBVA Compass Stadium |
| 2011-09-27 | USA 10–27 Italy | Rugby World Cup | Trafalgar Park(neutral) |
| 2004-11-27 | Italy 43–25 USA | — | Stadio Lamarmora |
| 1991-10-05 | USA 9–30 Italy | Rugby World Cup | Cross Green(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.