Italy vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Italy 42.0%draw 2.9%55.1% WalesWales 69.0%draw 2.9%28.1% ItalyItaly 34.9%draw 2.9%62.2% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Wales and 15 Italy, with the middle run at 2 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Italy are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Italy, negative favours Wales.
Italy 1367, Wales 1425 — 58 points, favouring Wales
Italy are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy5–1–29Wales35 meetings, 1994 to 2026 · Wales by 17.0 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Wales by 15.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Wales 31–17 Italy | Six Nations Championship | Principality Stadium |
| 2025-02-08 | Italy 22–15 Wales | — | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2024-03-16 | Wales 21–24 Italy | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2023-03-11 | Italy 17–29 Wales | — | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2022-03-19 | Wales 21–22 Italy | — | Principality Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 35. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.