Italy vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Italy 48.6%draw 3.0%48.4% WalesWales 72.1%draw 3.0%24.9% ItalyItaly 36.5%draw 3.0%60.5% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Wales and 23 Italy, half of them between 6 Wales and 10 Italy, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps Wales.
Italy 1827, Wales 1868 — 42 points, favouring Wales
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Italy are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Wales are on 48.4%, and a draw takes the other 3.0%.
Head to head
Italy5–1–29Wales35 meetings, 1994 to 2026 · Wales by 17.0 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Wales by 15.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Wales 31–17 Italy | Six Nations Championship | Principality Stadium |
| 2025-02-08 | Italy 22–15 Wales | — | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2024-03-16 | Wales 21–24 Italy | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2023-03-11 | Italy 17–29 Wales | — | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2022-03-19 | Wales 21–22 Italy | — | Principality Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 35. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.