Italy vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Italy 94.7%4.3% ZimbabweZimbabwe 11.9%87.1% ItalyItaly 91.2%7.8% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Italy v Zimbabwe, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Italy and 53 Italy, half of them between 9 Italy and 38 Italy, with the middle run at 21 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 45-24 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps Zimbabwe.
Italy 1827, Zimbabwe 1293 — 534 points, favouring Italy
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy4–0–0Zimbabwe4 meetings, 1985 to 1993 · Italy by 14.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1993-07-24 | Zimbabwe 6–20 Italy | — | — |
| 1989-09-30 | Italy 33–9 Zimbabwe | — | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 1985-06-30 | Zimbabwe 10–12 Italy | — | — |
| 1985-06-22 | Zimbabwe 6–25 Italy | — | — |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.