New Zealand vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
New Zealand 95.3%3.7% SamoaSamoa 4.8%94.2% New ZealandNew Zealand 94.8%4.2% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New Zealand wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 New Zealand and 52 New Zealand, with the middle run at 21 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 44-23 on an open one.
Why New Zealand are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours New Zealand, negative favours Samoa.
New Zealand 2045, Samoa 1150 — 895 points, favouring New Zealand
New Zealand are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New Zealand2–0–0Samoa2 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · New Zealand by 43.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-16 | New Zealand 78–0 Samoa | — | Eden Park |
| 2015-07-08 | Samoa 16–25 New Zealand | — | Apia Park |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.