New Zealand vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
New Zealand 97.6%1.4% SamoaSamoa 4.3%94.7% New ZealandNew Zealand 96.2%2.8% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for New Zealand v Samoa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New Zealand wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 New Zealand and 56 New Zealand, half of them between 9 New Zealand and 39 New Zealand, with the middle run at 22 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 40 and 90 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-14 on a tight afternoon and 50-28 on an open one.
Why New Zealand are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of New Zealand winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps New Zealand, a bar to the left helps Samoa.
New Zealand 2476, Samoa 1512 — 964 points, favouring New Zealand
New Zealand are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New Zealand8–0–0Samoa8 meetings, 1993 to 2017 · New Zealand by 45.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-16 | New Zealand 78–0 Samoa | — | Eden Park |
| 2015-07-08 | Samoa 16–25 New Zealand | — | Apia Park |
| 2008-09-03 | New Zealand 101–14 Samoa | — | Yarrow Stadium |
| 2001-06-16 | New Zealand 50–6 Samoa | — | North Harbour Stadium |
| 1999-06-18 | New Zealand 71–13 Samoa | — | North Harbour Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.