New Zealand vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
New Zealand 96.2%2.8% USAUSA 4.9%94.1% New ZealandNew Zealand 95.2%3.8% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New Zealand wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 New Zealand and 51 New Zealand, with the middle run at 21 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 80 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 44-23 on an open one.
Why New Zealand are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours New Zealand, negative favours USA.
New Zealand 2045, USA 1088 — 958 points, favouring New Zealand
New Zealand are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New Zealand2–0–0USA2 meetings, 1991 to 2021 · New Zealand by 65.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-23 | USA 14–104 New Zealand | — | FedExField |
| 1991-10-08 | New Zealand 46–6 USA | Rugby World Cup | Kingsholm(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.