New Zealand vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
New Zealand 97.9%1.1% USAUSA 3.9%95.1% New ZealandNew Zealand 96.6%2.4% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for New Zealand v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New Zealand wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 New Zealand and 55 New Zealand, half of them between 9 New Zealand and 39 New Zealand, with the middle run at 22 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 40 and 91 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-14 on a tight afternoon and 49-27 on an open one.
Why New Zealand are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of New Zealand winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps New Zealand, a bar to the left helps USA.
New Zealand 2476, USA 1537 — 939 points, favouring New Zealand
New Zealand are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New Zealand5–0–0USA5 meetings, 1913 to 2021 · New Zealand by 58.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-23 | USA 14–104 New Zealand | — | FedExField |
| 2014-11-01 | USA 6–74 New Zealand | — | Soldier Field Stadium |
| 1991-10-08 | New Zealand 46–6 USA | Rugby World Cup | Kingsholm(neutral) |
| 1980-10-08 | USA 6–53 New Zealand | — | The Stadium |
| 1913-11-15 | USA 3–51 New Zealand | — | California Field |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.