New Zealand vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
New Zealand 91.6%7.4% WalesWales 4.9%94.1% New ZealandNew Zealand 92.9%6.1% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New Zealand wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 New Zealand and 50 New Zealand, with the middle run at 20 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-11 on a tight afternoon and 42-22 on an open one.
Why New Zealand are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours New Zealand, negative favours Wales.
New Zealand 2045, Wales 1425 — 620 points, favouring New Zealand
New Zealand are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New Zealand35–0–3Wales38 meetings, 1905 to 2025 · New Zealand by 21.4 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · New Zealand by 24.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Wales 26–52 New Zealand | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2022-11-05 | Wales 23–55 New Zealand | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2021-10-30 | Wales 16–54 New Zealand | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2019-11-01 | New Zealand 40–17 Wales | — | Ajinomoto Stadium(neutral) |
| 2017-11-25 | Wales 18–33 New Zealand | — | Principality Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 38. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.