New Zealand vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
New Zealand 96.3%2.7% WalesWales 7.5%91.5% New ZealandNew Zealand 94.0%5.0% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for New Zealand v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New Zealand wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 New Zealand and 52 New Zealand, half of them between 8 New Zealand and 37 New Zealand, with the middle run at 20 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 83 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-13 on a tight afternoon and 45-25 on an open one.
Why New Zealand are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of New Zealand winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps New Zealand, a bar to the left helps Wales.
New Zealand 2476, Wales 1868 — 608 points, favouring New Zealand
New Zealand are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New Zealand35–0–3Wales38 meetings, 1905 to 2025 · New Zealand by 21.4 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · New Zealand by 24.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Wales 26–52 New Zealand | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2022-11-05 | Wales 23–55 New Zealand | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2021-10-30 | Wales 16–54 New Zealand | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2019-11-01 | New Zealand 40–17 Wales | — | Ajinomoto Stadium(neutral) |
| 2017-11-25 | Wales 18–33 New Zealand | — | Principality Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 38. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.