Newcastle Falcons vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Newcastle Falcons 41.2%draw 2.5%56.3% OspreysOspreys 79.9%draw 2.5%17.6% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 29.1%draw 2.5%68.4% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Newcastle Falcons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Ospreys and 14 Newcastle Falcons, with the middle run at 2 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Newcastle Falcons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Newcastle Falcons, negative favours Ospreys.
Newcastle Falcons 1174, Ospreys 1470 — 295 points, favouring Ospreys
Newcastle Falcons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Newcastle Falcons1–0–3Ospreys4 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Ospreys by 16.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Ospreys 35–15 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2021-04-03 | Ospreys 24–28 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2017-01-21 | Newcastle Falcons 21–26 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2016-10-14 | Ospreys 45–0 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.