Newcastle Falcons vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Newcastle Falcons 31.9%draw 2.5%65.6% OspreysOspreys 82.7%draw 2.5%14.8% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 21.3%draw 2.5%76.2% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Newcastle Falcons v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Newcastle Falcons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 26 Ospreys and 11 Newcastle Falcons, half of them between 15 Ospreys and 3 Newcastle Falcons, with the middle run at 5 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 35-30 on an open one.
Why Newcastle Falcons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Newcastle Falcons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Newcastle Falcons, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Newcastle Falcons 1040, Ospreys 1567 — 527 points, favouring Ospreys
Newcastle Falcons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Newcastle Falcons1–0–3Ospreys4 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Ospreys by 16.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Ospreys 35–15 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2021-04-03 | Ospreys 24–28 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2017-01-21 | Newcastle Falcons 21–26 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2016-10-14 | Ospreys 45–0 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.