Ospreys vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Ospreys 43.8%draw 2.5%53.7% UlsterUlster 68.7%draw 2.5%28.8% OspreysOspreys 36.1%draw 2.5%61.4% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Ulster and 15 Ospreys, with the middle run at 1 Ulster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ospreys, negative favours Ulster.
Ospreys 1470, Ulster 1633 — 164 points, favouring Ulster
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys4–0–12Ulster16 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ulster by 10.1 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Ulster by 10.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Ulster 28–24 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2024-10-18 | Ulster 36–12 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2024-02-18 | Ospreys 19–17 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2022-10-08 | Ulster 47–17 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2021-12-04 | Ospreys 19–13 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.