Ospreys vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Ospreys 58.8%draw 2.5%38.7% UlsterUlster 69.9%draw 2.5%27.6% OspreysOspreys 42.6%draw 2.5%54.9% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ospreys v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Ulster and 20 Ospreys, half of them between 5 Ulster and 11 Ospreys, with the middle run at 3 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-16 on a tight afternoon and 30-27 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ospreys winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ospreys, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Ospreys 1567, Ulster 1582 — 15 points, favouring Ulster
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ospreys5–0–12Ulster17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ulster by 8.9 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Ulster by 8.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Ulster 28–24 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2026-02-28 | Ospreys 21–10 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2024-10-18 | Ulster 36–12 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2024-02-18 | Ospreys 19–17 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2022-10-08 | Ulster 47–17 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.