Samoa vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Samoa 65.5%draw 3.0%31.5% USAUSA 68.1%draw 3.0%28.9% SamoaSamoa 48.8%draw 3.0%48.2% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Samoa v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Samoa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 USA and 31 Samoa, half of them between 3 USA and 18 Samoa, with the middle run at 5 Samoa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Samoa are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Samoa winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Samoa, a bar to the left helps USA.
Samoa 1512, USA 1537 — 26 points, favouring USA
Samoa are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Samoa6–0–3USA9 meetings, 1999 to 2025 · Samoa by 1.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | USA 29–13 Samoa | — | DICK'S Sporting Goods Park |
| 2024-09-21 | USA 13–18 Samoa | — | Osaka(neutral) |
| 2019-08-03 | USA 13–10 Samoa | — | ANZ Stadium(neutral) |
| 2018-11-10 | USA 30–29 Samoa | — | Reale Arena |
| 2015-09-20 | USA 16–25 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Brighton Community Stadium(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.