Samoa vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Samoa 60.8%draw 2.9%36.3% USAUSA 42.3%draw 2.9%54.8% SamoaSamoa 57.9%draw 2.9%39.2% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Samoa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 USA and 33 Samoa, with the middle run at 4 Samoa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Samoa are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Samoa, negative favours USA.
Samoa 1150, USA 1088 — 63 points, favouring Samoa
Samoa are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Samoa3–0–1USA4 meetings, 2007 to 2024 · Samoa by 4.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | USA 13–18 Samoa | — | Osaka(neutral) |
| 2018-11-10 | USA 30–29 Samoa | — | Reale Arena |
| 2015-09-20 | USA 16–25 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Brighton Community Stadium(neutral) |
| 2007-09-26 | USA 21–25 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.