Samoa vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Samoa 19.5%draw 1.4%79.1% WalesWales 91.2%draw 1.4%7.4% SamoaSamoa 13.1%draw 1.4%85.5% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Samoa v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Samoa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 33 Wales and 11 Samoa, half of them between 20 Wales and 1 Wales, with the middle run at 9 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Samoa are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Samoa winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Samoa, a bar to the left helps Wales.
Samoa 1512, Wales 1868 — 356 points, favouring Wales
Samoa are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Samoa4–0–6Wales10 meetings, 1986 to 2017 · Wales by 5.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-23 | Samoa 17–19 Wales | — | Apia Park |
| 2012-11-16 | Wales 19–26 Samoa | — | Millennium Stadium |
| 2011-09-18 | Wales 17–10 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | FMG Stadium Waikato(neutral) |
| 2009-11-13 | Wales 17–13 Samoa | — | Millennium Stadium |
| 2000-11-11 | Wales 50–6 Samoa | — | Millennium Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 10. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.