Samoa vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Samoa 22.2%draw 1.9%75.9% WalesWales 85.9%draw 1.9%12.2% SamoaSamoa 17.1%draw 1.9%81.0% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Samoa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 33 Wales and 13 Samoa, with the middle run at 8 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Samoa are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Samoa, negative favours Wales.
Samoa 1150, Wales 1425 — 275 points, favouring Wales
Samoa are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Samoa2–0–2Wales4 meetings, 1991 to 2017 · Samoa by 0.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-23 | Samoa 17–19 Wales | — | Apia Park |
| 2011-09-18 | Wales 17–10 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | FMG Stadium Waikato(neutral) |
| 1999-10-14 | Wales 31–38 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Principality Stadium |
| 1991-10-06 | Wales 13–16 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | National Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.