USA vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
USA 21.0%draw 1.6%77.4% WalesWales 93.2%draw 1.6%5.2% USAUSA 12.0%draw 1.5%86.5% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for USA v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are USA wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 40 Wales and 10 USA, half of them between 26 Wales and 1 Wales, with the middle run at 10 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 37-27 on an open one.
Why USA are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of USA winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps USA, a bar to the left helps Wales.
USA 1537, Wales 1868 — 331 points, favouring Wales
USA are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
USA0–0–8Wales8 meetings, 1980 to 2009 · Wales by 28.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-06-06 | USA 15–48 Wales | — | Toyota Park |
| 2005-06-04 | USA 3–77 Wales | — | Rentschler Stadium |
| 2000-11-18 | Wales 42–11 USA | — | Millennium Stadium |
| 1997-07-12 | USA 23–28 Wales | — | Matthew J. Boxer Stadium, Balboa Park |
| 1997-07-05 | USA 20–30 Wales | — | Brook's Field |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.