USA vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
USA 86.8%draw 2.1%11.1% ZimbabweZimbabwe 29.4%draw 2.1%68.5% USAUSA 78.6%draw 2.1%19.3% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for USA v Zimbabwe, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are USA wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Zimbabwe and 42 USA, half of them between 4 USA and 28 USA, with the middle run at 14 USA.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-13 on a tight afternoon and 38-24 on an open one.
Why USA are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of USA winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps USA, a bar to the left helps Zimbabwe.
USA 1537, Zimbabwe 1293 — 245 points, favouring USA
USA are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
USA1–0–0Zimbabwe1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · USA by 16.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | USA 31–15 Zimbabwe | — | American Legion Memorial Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.