Wales vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Wales 96.4%2.6% ZimbabweZimbabwe 7.4%91.6% WalesWales 94.2%4.8% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Wales v Zimbabwe, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Wales wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Wales and 51 Wales, half of them between 9 Wales and 37 Wales, with the middle run at 21 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 45-24 on an open one.
Why Wales are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Wales winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Wales, a bar to the left helps Zimbabwe.
Wales 1868, Zimbabwe 1293 — 576 points, favouring Wales
Wales are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Wales3–0–0Zimbabwe3 meetings, 1993 to 1998 · Wales by 29.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998-06-06 | Zimbabwe 11–49 Wales | — | National Sports Stadium |
| 1993-05-29 | Zimbabwe 13–42 Wales | — | Police Ground |
| 1993-05-22 | Zimbabwe 14–35 Wales | — | — |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.