Scotland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 20
6 February 1999Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 3.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 8 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Paul Burnell
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Doddie Weir
- 6Peter Walton
- 7Martin Leslie
- 8Eric Peters
- 9Gary Armstrong(c)
- 10Duncan Hodge
- 11Kenny Logan
- 12John Leslie-1.3
- 13Gregor Townsend
- 14Cammie Murray
- 15Glenn Metcalfe
Replacements
- 16Budge Pountney
- 17Stuart Grimes
- 18Alan Tait
- 19Dave Hilton
- 20Iain Fairley
- 21Shaun Longstaff
- 22Steve Brotherstone
Wales
- 1Darren Morris
- 2Jonathan Humphreys
- 3Chris Anthony
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Chris Wyatt-10.8
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Scott Quinnell
- 9Rob Howley(c)
- 10Neil Jenkins
- 11Matthew Robinson
- 12Scott Gibbs
- 13Allan Bateman
- 14Dafydd James-9.4
- 15Shane Howarth
Replacements
- 16Barry Williams
- 17Mike Voyle
- 18David Llewellyn
- 19Andrew Lewis
- 20Mark Taylor+1.1
- 21Geraint Lewis
- 22Kevin Morgan+4.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.