France v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 34
6 March 1999Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 2.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.4 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Christian Califano-10.0
- 2Raphael Ibanez(c)-4.5
- 3Franck Tournaire
- 4Olivier Brouzet
- 5Fabien Pelous+1.3
- 6Philippe Benetton
- 7Marc Raynaud
- 8Thomas Lievremont-3.7
- 9Philippe Carbonneau
- 10Thomas Castaignede-2.7
- 11Thomas Lombard
- 12Richard Dourthe
- 13Franck Comba
- 14Philippe Bernat-Salles
- 15Emile Ntamack
Replacements
- 16David Aucagne
- 17Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 18Xavier Garbajosa-2.6
- 19Richard Castel
- 20Marc dal Maso
- 21David Auradou-6.7
- 22Christophe Laussucq
Wales
- 1Peter Rogers
- 2Garin Jenkins
- 3Ben Evans
- 4Craig Quinnell
- 5Chris Wyatt-10.8
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Brett Sinkinson
- 8Scott Quinnell
- 9Rob Howley(c)
- 10Neil Jenkins
- 11Dafydd James-9.4
- 12Scott Gibbs
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Matthew Robinson
- 15Shane Howarth
Replacements
- 16Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 17Andrew Lewis
- 18David Llewellyn
- 19Mike Voyle
- 20John Davies
- 21Kevin Morgan+4.7
- 22Barry Williams
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.