England v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 10
20 March 1999Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v France
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 7.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 16 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Jason Leonard
- 2Richard Cockerill
- 3Darren Garforth
- 4Martin Johnson+2.1
- 5Tim Rodber
- 6Richard Hill
- 7Neil Back
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio(c)+8.7
- 9Kyran Bracken-1.7
- 10Mike Catt+2.3
- 11Dan Luger-5.9
- 12Jerry Guscott
- 13Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 14David Rees
- 15Matt Perry
Replacements
- 16Matt Dawson
- 17Martin Corry-6.2
- 18Nick Beal
- 19Victor Ubogu
- 20Garath Archer
- 21Barrie-Jon Mather
- 22Neil McCarthy
France
- 1Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 2Raphael Ibanez(c)-4.5
- 3Franck Tournaire
- 4Olivier Brouzet
- 5Fabien Pelous+1.3
- 6Thomas Lievremont-3.7
- 7Richard Castel
- 8Christophe Juillet
- 9Philippe Carbonneau
- 10Thomas Castaignede-2.7
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12Franck Comba
- 13Pascal Giordani
- 14Xavier Garbajosa-2.6
- 15Emile Ntamack
Replacements
- 16Christian Califano-10.0
- 17Marc Raynaud
- 18David Auradou-6.7
- 19Christophe Laussucq
- 20David Aucagne
- 21Philippe Bernat-Salles
- 22Marc de Rougemont
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.