New Zealand v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
101 – 3
14 October 1999John Smith's Stadium, Huddersfield · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v Italy
- Kick-off
- 11:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 62 m
- Temperature
- 10.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 7 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Greg Feek
- 2Mark Hammett
- 3Craig Dowd
- 4Ian Jones
- 5Royce Willis
- 6Dylan Mika
- 7Andrew Blowers
- 8Taine Randell(c)
- 9Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 10Tony Brown
- 11Jonah Lomu
- 12Daryl Gibson
- 13Pita Alatini
- 14Glen Osborne
- 15Jeff Wilson
Replacements
- 16Christian Cullen
- 17Rhys Duggan
- 18Scott Robertson
- 19Robin Brooke
- 20Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 21Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
- 22Anton Oliver-0.3
Italy
- 1Alejandro Moreno
- 2Andrea Moretti
- 3Andrea Castellani
- 4Carlo Checchinato
- 5Mark Giacheri
- 6Massimo Giovanelli(c)
- 7Stefano Saviozzi
- 8Carlo Caione
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Diego Dominguez
- 11Nicolas Zisti
- 12Sandro Ceppolino
- 13Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 14Paolo Vaccari
- 15Matt Pini
Replacements
- 16Nicola Mazzucato-0.6
- 17Francesco Mazzariol
- 18Orazio Arancio
- 19Walter Cristofoletto
- 20Franco Properzi-Curti
- 21Alessandro Moscardi
- 22Giampiero Mazzi
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.