Scotland v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 30
24 October 1999Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 10.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.8 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 8 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Paul Burnell
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Doddie Weir
- 6Martin Leslie
- 7Budge Pountney
- 8Gordon Simpson
- 9Gary Armstrong(c)
- 10Gregor Townsend
- 11Kenny Logan
- 12Jamie Mayer
- 13Alan Tait
- 14Cammie Murray
- 15Glenn Metcalfe
Replacements
- 16Stuart Grimes
- 17George Graham
- 18Robbie Russell+3.0
- 19James McLaren
- 20Duncan Hodge
- 21Bryan Redpath
- 22Cameron Mather
New Zealand
- 1Carl Hoeft-11.7
- 2Anton Oliver-0.3
- 3Craig Dowd
- 4Norm Maxwell
- 5Robin Brooke
- 6Reuben Thorne+4.5
- 7Josh Kronfeld
- 8Taine Randell(c)
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
- 11Jonah Lomu
- 12Alama Ieremia
- 13Christian Cullen
- 14Tana Umaga-18.3
- 15Jeff Wilson
Replacements
- 16Daryl Gibson
- 17Tony Brown
- 18Ian Jones
- 19Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 20Mark Hammett
- 21Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 22Andrew Blowers
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.