New Zealand v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
31 – 43
31 October 1999Allianz Stadium, London · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 12.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 28 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Carl Hoeft-11.7
- 2Anton Oliver-0.3
- 3Craig Dowd
- 4Norm Maxwell
- 5Robin Brooke
- 6Reuben Thorne+4.5
- 7Josh Kronfeld
- 8Taine Randell(c)
- 9Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 10Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
- 11Jonah Lomu
- 12Alama Ieremia
- 13Christian Cullen
- 14Tana Umaga-18.3
- 15Jeff Wilson
Replacements
- 16Daryl Gibson
- 17Justin Marshall
- 18Royce Willis
- 19Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 20Tony Brown
- 21Andrew Blowers
- 22Mark Hammett
France
- 1Cedric Soulette
- 2Raphael Ibanez(c)-4.5
- 3Franck Tournaire
- 4Abdelatif Benazzi
- 5Fabien Pelous+1.3
- 6Marc Lievremont
- 7Olivier Magne+10.5
- 8Christophe Juillet
- 9Fabien Galthie+6.5
- 10Christophe Lamaison
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12Emile Ntamack
- 13Richard Dourthe
- 14Philippe Bernat-Salles
- 15Xavier Garbajosa-2.6
Replacements
- 16Ugo Mola
- 17Stephane Glas
- 18Stephane Castaignede
- 19Arnaud Costes
- 20Olivier Brouzet
- 21Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 22Marc dal Maso
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.