Ireland v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
44 – 22
19 February 2000Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 5.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 12 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Peter Clohessy
- 2Keith Wood(c)+3.6
- 3John Hayes
- 4Mick Galwey
- 5Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7Kieron Dawson
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Mike Mullins
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Rob Henderson-2.2
- 17David Humphreys
- 18Jeremy Davidson
- 19Justin Fitzpatrick-4.2
- 20Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 21Trevor Brennan
- 22Guy Easterby
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Mattie Stewart
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Stuart Grimes
- 6Martin Leslie
- 7Budge Pountney
- 8Gordon Simpson
- 9Bryan Redpath(c)
- 10Gregor Townsend
- 11Kenny Logan
- 12Graham Shiel
- 13Jamie Mayer
- 14Shaun Longstaff
- 15Glenn Metcalfe
Replacements
- 16Doddie Weir
- 17Andy Nicol
- 18George Graham
- 19Robbie Russell+3.0
- 20Stuart Reid
- 21Duncan Hodge
- 22James McLaren
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.