Scotland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 28
17 February 2001Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 4.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 11 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Mattie Stewart
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Richard Metcalfe
- 6Martin Leslie
- 7Budge Pountney
- 8Jon Petrie
- 9Andy Nicol(c)
- 10Duncan Hodge
- 11Kenny Logan
- 12John Leslie-1.3
- 13James McLaren
- 14Cammie Murray
- 15Chris Paterson+1.8
Replacements
- 16Gordon McIlwham
- 17Stuart Grimes
- 18James Craig
- 19Steve Scott
- 20Jason White+12.3
- 21Bryan Redpath
- 22Alan Bulloch
Wales
- 1Darren Morris
- 2Robin McBryde+4.3
- 3Dai Young(c)
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Andy Moore
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Scott Quinnell
- 9Rob Howley
- 10Neil Jenkins
- 11Dafydd James-9.4
- 12Scott Gibbs
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Rhys Williams
Replacements
- 16Craig Quinnell
- 17Rupert Moon
- 18Spencer John
- 19Garin Jenkins
- 20Geraint Lewis
- 21Allan Bateman
- 22Gareth Thomas+5.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.