Scotland v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 10
22 September 2001Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 10.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Mattie Stewart
- 4Jason White+12.3
- 5Scott Murray
- 6Gordon Simpson
- 7Budge Pountney(c)
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Bryan Redpath
- 10Gregor Townsend
- 11Chris Paterson+1.8
- 12John Leslie-1.3
- 13James McLaren
- 14Jon Steel
- 15Glenn Metcalfe
Replacements
- 16George Graham
- 17Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 18Stuart Grimes
- 19Jon Petrie
- 20Duncan Hodge
- 21Steve Scott
- 22Andy Nicol
Ireland
- 1Peter Clohessy
- 2Keith Wood(c)+3.6
- 3John Hayes
- 4Jeremy Davidson
- 5Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7Kieron Dawson
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Guy Easterby
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Shane Horgan+5.3
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Geordan Murphy-2.5
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Kevin Maggs
- 17Emmet Byrne
- 18Peter Stringer+11.4
- 19David Wallace-1.6
- 20David Humphreys
- 21Gary Longwell
- 22Frank Sheahan+3.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.