France v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 12
2 February 2002Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Italy
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 10.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 20 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Jacques Crenca
- 2Yannick Bru
- 3Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 4David Auradou-6.7
- 5Thibault Privat
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Olivier Magne(c)+10.5
- 8Steven Hall
- 9Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 10Gerald Merceron
- 11David Bory
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13Tony Marsh
- 14Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 15Nicolas Jeanjean
Replacements
- 16Xavier Garbajosa-2.6
- 17Raphael Ibanez-4.5
- 18Fabien Pelous+1.3
- 19Alexandre Albouy
- 20Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 21Elvis Vermeulen
- 22Francois Gelez
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Alessandro Moscardi(c)
- 3Andrea Muraro
- 4Carlo Checchinato
- 5Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 6Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Matt Phillips
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Diego Dominguez
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 13Luca Martin
- 14Roberto Pedrazzi
- 15Paolo Vaccari
Replacements
- 16Giampiero de Carli
- 17Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 18Alejandro Moreno
- 19Mark Giacheri
- 20Aaron Persico
- 21Juan Manuel Queirolo
- 22Ramiro Pez+2.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.