Ireland v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
43 – 22
2 March 2002Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 5.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.4 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Peter Clohessy
- 2Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 3John Hayes
- 4Mick Galwey(c)
- 5Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 6Eric Miller-2.2
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10David Humphreys
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Kevin Maggs
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Shane Byrne
- 17Simon Easterby-7.8
- 18Gary Longwell
- 19Paul Wallace
- 20Ronan O'Gara
- 21Guy Easterby
- 22John Kelly
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Mattie Stewart
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Stuart Grimes
- 6Jason White+12.3
- 7Budge Pountney
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Bryan Redpath(c)
- 10Gregor Townsend
- 11Chris Paterson+1.8
- 12Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 13James McLaren
- 14Glenn Metcalfe
- 15Brendan Laney
Replacements
- 16Martin Leslie
- 17George Graham
- 18Kenny Logan
- 19Robbie Russell+3.0
- 20Jon Petrie
- 21Graeme Beveridge
- 22Duncan Hodge
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.