New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
41 – 20
20 July 2002Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 12.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 44 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Dave Hewett
- 2Mark Hammett
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Simon Maling
- 6Reuben Thorne(c)+4.5
- 7Richie McCaw+1.0
- 8Scott Robertson
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
- 11Caleb Ralph
- 12Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 13Mark Robinson
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Christian Cullen
Replacements
- 16Tom Willis
- 17Joe McDonnell
- 18Royce Willis
- 19Sam Broomhall
- 20Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 21Tana Umaga-18.3
- 22Jonah Lomu
South Africa
- 1Lawrence Sephaka
- 2James Dalton
- 3Willie Meyer
- 4Jannes Labuschagne
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Corne Krige(c)-5.2
- 7Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 8Bobby Skinstad+2.3
- 9Bolla Conradie
- 10Andre Pretorius-0.7
- 11Dean Hall
- 12De Wet Barry+0.2
- 13Marius Joubert
- 14Stefan Terblanche-3.6
- 15Werner Greeff
Replacements
- 16Ollie le Roux
- 17Faan Rautenbach
- 18AJ Venter
- 19Hendro Scholtz
- 20Neil de Kock
- 21Adrian Jacobs-2.7
- 22Breyton Paulse-2.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.