South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 52
19 July 2003Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 1354 m
- Temperature
- 12.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Lawrence Sephaka
- 2Danie Coetzee
- 3Richard Bands
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Corne Krige(c)-5.2
- 7Wikus van Heerden
- 8Juan Smith+0.6
- 9Joost van der Westhuizen
- 10Louis Koen
- 11Ashwin Willemse
- 12De Wet Barry+0.2
- 13Andre Snyman
- 14Stefan Terblanche-3.6
- 15Brent Russell
Replacements
- 16Dale Santon
- 17Robbie Kempson
- 18Selborne Boome
- 19Pedrie Wannenburg
- 20Craig Davidson
- 21Gcobani Bobo
- 22Andre Pretorius-0.7
New Zealand
- 1Dave Hewett
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Reuben Thorne(c)+4.5
- 7Richie McCaw+1.0
- 8Jerry Collins
- 9Steve Devine
- 10Carlos Spencer+6.5
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 13Tana Umaga-18.3
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Mark Hammett
- 17Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 18Brad Thorn+3.6
- 19Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 20Justin Marshall
- 21Dan Carter+1.9
- 22Caleb Ralph
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 7 |
| 1 | Conversions | 4 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.