New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 11
9 August 2003Carisbrook, Dunedin
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 118 m
- Temperature
- 4.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 23 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Dave Hewett
- 2Mark Hammett
- 3Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Reuben Thorne(c)+4.5
- 7Marty Holah-0.8
- 8Jerry Collins
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Carlos Spencer+6.5
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 13Tana Umaga-18.3
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Greg Somerville+6.5
- 18Chris Jack
- 19Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 20Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 21Dan Carter+1.9
- 22Leon MacDonald+1.6
South Africa
- 1Lawrence Sephaka
- 2Danie Coetzee
- 3Richard Bands
- 4Geo Cronje
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Corne Krige(c)-5.2
- 7Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 8Juan Smith+0.6
- 9Joost van der Westhuizen
- 10Louis Koen
- 11Ashwin Willemse
- 12Gcobani Bobo
- 13Jorrie Muller
- 14Stefan Terblanche-3.6
- 15Thinus Delport
Replacements
- 16Lukas van Biljon
- 17Christo Bezuidenhout
- 18Selborne Boome
- 19Pedrie Wannenburg
- 20Neil de Kock
- 21De Wet Barry+0.2
- 22Andre Pretorius-0.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.