Ireland v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 15
26 October 2003Adelaide Oval, Adelaide · neutral venue
What the model says about Ireland v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 08:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 23 m
- Temperature
- 12.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.2 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Reggie Corrigan-1.6
- 2Keith Wood(c)+3.6
- 3John Hayes
- 4Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7Alan Quinlan
- 8Victor Costello-4.5
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10David Humphreys
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Kevin Maggs
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
Argentina
- 1Roberto Grau
- 2Federico Mendez Azpillaga
- 3Mauricio Reggiardo
- 4Ignacio Fernandez Lobbe
- 5Rimas Alvarez Kairelis
- 6Lucas Ostiglia
- 7Rolando Martin
- 8Gonzalo Longo Elia
- 9Agustin Pichot(c)
- 10Gonzalo Quesada
- 11Diego Albanese
- 12Felipe Contepomi-2.0
- 13Jose Orengo
- 14Jose Nunez Piossek
- 15Ignacio Corleto
Replacements
- 16Mario Ledesma Arocena
- 17Martin Scelzo
- 18Patricio Albacete
- 19Santiago Phelan
- 20Nicolas Fernandez Miranda
- 21Martin Gaitan
- 22Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Possession | — |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 445m | Carry metres | 413m |
| 13 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 22 | Defenders beaten | 22 |
| 7 | Offloads | 5 |
| 144 | Passes | 117 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 76 | Tackles made | 89 |
| 78.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 22 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 22 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 90.0% | Lineout success | 79.4% |
| 18 | Lineouts won | 27 |
| 5 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 74 | Rucks won | 65 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 14 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Kicks from hand | 36 |
| 1312m | Kick metres | 1153m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 14 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.