Australia v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 16
1 November 2003Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
What the model says about Australia v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 09:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 21 m
- Temperature
- 10.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 11.5 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Bill Young
- 2Brendan Cannon
- 3Ben Darwin
- 4David Giffin+0.8
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6George Smith
- 7Phil Waugh
- 8David Lyons-0.2
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Joe Roff-6.5
- 12Elton Flatley
- 13Matt Burke
- 14Wendell Sailor
- 15Mat Rogers
Replacements
- 16Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 17Al Baxter
- 18Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 19Matt Cockbain
- 20Chris Whitaker
- 21Matt Giteau+3.8
- 22Lote Tuqiri
Ireland
- 1Reggie Corrigan-1.6
- 2Keith Wood(c)+3.6
- 3John Hayes
- 4Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7Keith Gleeson
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Kevin Maggs
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 446m | Carry metres | 264m |
| 2 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 26 | Defenders beaten | 14 |
| 5 | Offloads | 6 |
| 151 | Passes | 148 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 98 | Tackles made | 114 |
| 88.0% | Tackle success | 81.0% |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 26 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 10 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 77.8% | Lineout success | — |
| 21 | Lineouts won | 16 |
| 4 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 71 | Rucks won | 62 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kicks from hand | 40 |
| 910m | Kick metres | 1428m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.