Australia v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 10
15 November 2003Accor Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 09:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 25.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 22 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Bill Young
- 2Brendan Cannon
- 3Ben Darwin
- 4Justin Harrison
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6George Smith
- 7Phil Waugh
- 8David Lyons-0.2
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Elton Flatley
- 13Stirling Mortlock+4.4
- 14Wendell Sailor
- 15Mat Rogers
Replacements
- 16Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 17Al Baxter
- 18David Giffin+0.8
- 19Matt Cockbain
- 20Chris Whitaker
- 21Nathan Grey+10.3
- 22Joe Roff-6.5
New Zealand
- 1Dave Hewett
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Reuben Thorne(c)+4.5
- 7Richie McCaw+1.0
- 8Jerry Collins
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Carlos Spencer+6.5
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 13Leon MacDonald+1.6
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Mark Hammett
- 17Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 18Brad Thorn+3.6
- 19Marty Holah-0.8
- 20Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 21Dan Carter+1.9
- 22Caleb Ralph
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 551m | Carry metres | 443m |
| 9 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 32 | Defenders beaten | 22 |
| 9 | Offloads | 11 |
| 192 | Passes | 169 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 163 | Tackles made | 162 |
| 88.0% | Tackle success | 84.0% |
| 22 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 32 |
| 11 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 75.0% | Lineout success | 71.4% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 11 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 102 | Rucks won | 92 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Kicks from hand | 13 |
| 498m | Kick metres | 479m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 13 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 13 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.