South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 19
21 August 2004Hollywoodbets Kings Park, Durban
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 20.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3Eddie Andrews
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Schalk Burger+6.0
- 7AJ Venter
- 8Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 9Bolla Conradie
- 10Jaco van der Westhuyzen+3.4
- 11Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 12De Wet Barry+0.2
- 13Marius Joubert
- 14Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
Australia
- 1Bill Young
- 2Brendan Cannon
- 3Al Baxter
- 4Justin Harrison
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6George Smith
- 7Phil Waugh
- 8David Lyons-0.2
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Stirling Mortlock+4.4
- 14Clyde Rathbone
- 15Chris Latham+0.2
Replacements
- 16Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 17Matt Dunning+1.3
- 18Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 19John Roe
- 20Chris Whitaker
- 21Matt Burke
- 22Wendell Sailor
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.