Scotland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 10
26 February 2005Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 2.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.9 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 23 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch(c)
- 3Gavin Kerr
- 4Stuart Grimes
- 5Scott Murray
- 6Simon Taylor
- 7Jon Petrie
- 8Ally Hogg
- 9Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Hugo Southwell
- 13Andy Craig
- 14Simon Webster+9.7
- 15Chris Paterson+1.8
Replacements
- 16Robbie Russell+3.0
- 17Bruce Douglas
- 18Nathan Hines-2.0
- 19Jon Dunbar
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Gordon Ross+3.2
- 22Ben Hinshelwood
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami(c)+0.7
- 6Aaron Persico
- 7David dal Maso
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 11Ludovico Nitoglia
- 12Andrea Masi-5.0
- 13Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 14Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 15Roland de Marigny
Replacements
- 16Giorgio Intoppa
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 19Silvio Orlando
- 20Paul Griffen
- 21Roberto Pedrazzi
- 22Kaine Robertson-1.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.