Italy v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 56
19 March 2005Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v France
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 11.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami(c)+0.7
- 6Aaron Persico
- 7David dal Maso
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 11Ludovico Nitoglia
- 12Simon Picone+3.8
- 13Andrea Masi-5.0
- 14Kaine Robertson-1.3
- 15Gert Peens
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 18Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 19Silvio Orlando
- 20Paul Griffen
- 21Roberto Pedrazzi
- 22Roland de Marigny
France
- 1Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 2Sebastien Bruno
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Fabien Pelous(c)+1.3
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Yannick Nyanga Kabasele+2.5
- 8Julien Bonnaire
- 9Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 10Yann Delaigue
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12David Marty+6.7
- 13Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 14Cedric Heymans-0.6
- 15Julien Laharrague
Replacements
- 16William Servat+1.4
- 17Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 18Pascal Pape+1.7
- 19Gregory Lamboley
- 20Pierre Mignoni-1.1
- 21Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 22Damien Traille+3.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 7 |
| 1 | Conversions | 6 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.