Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 22
20 August 2005Patersons Stadium, Perth (WA)
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 12.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Bill Young
- 2Brendan Cannon
- 3Al Baxter
- 4Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7Phil Waugh
- 8David Lyons-0.2
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Morgan Turinui
- 14Mat Rogers
- 15Drew Mitchell+1.7
Replacements
- 16Stephen Moore+5.5
- 17Matt Dunning+1.3
- 18Mark Chisholm+2.7
- 19George Smith
- 20John Roe
- 21Chris Whitaker
- 22Clyde Rathbone
- 22Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Schalk Burger+6.0
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 9Ricky Januarie-1.8
- 10Andre Pretorius-0.7
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Hanyani Shimange
- 17Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 18Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 19Jacques Cronje
- 20Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 21Wayne Julies
- 22Jaco van der Westhuyzen+3.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.