Scotland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 16
5 February 2006Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 5.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Gavin Kerr
- 2Dougie Hall-1.1
- 3Bruce Douglas
- 4Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 5Scott Murray
- 6Jason White(c)+12.3
- 7Ally Hogg
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Mike Blair+4.5
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 13Marcus di Rollo
- 14Chris Paterson+1.8
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Craig Smith
- 18Scott Macleod
- 19Jon Petrie
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Gordon Ross+3.2
- 22Simon Webster+9.7
France
- 1Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 2Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 3Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 4Fabien Pelous(c)+1.3
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Yannick Nyanga Kabasele+2.5
- 7Remy Martin
- 8Julien Bonnaire
- 9Jean-Baptiste Elissalde+1.3
- 10Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12Ludovic Valbon
- 13Florian Fritz
- 14Cedric Heymans-0.6
- 15Nicolas Brusque+1.9
Replacements
- 16Sebastien Bruno
- 17Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 18Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 19Thomas Lievremont-3.7
- 20Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 21Benjamin Boyet
- 22Guilliaume Bousses
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.